I’m not going to advocate for the Electoral College, but something I have yet to see discussed is the number of electors. If the EC was as crucial as some would have you believe, you’d think they’d at least get the number of electors right. However, the number of electors has been locked at 538 since 1929! But, America’s population has grown since then, which means that the number of electors for each state might actually be incorrect. Lucky for you, I’ve done the math so you don’t have to.
Every state gets two senators, while representatives are based on a state’s population. That means, of the 538 electors, 100 are senators, and 3 belong to Washington D.C. Right now, there’s some formula that I didn’t look up that assigns 435 electors to states proportionately… but it never goes above 435. If we were to actually allocate electors based on population, it would follow that we’d do so by taking the state with the smallest population and give it one representative, then assign every other state representatives based on multiples of that number.
The least populated state is Wyoming. It currently has 3 electors. Obviously, under the new formula, this wouldn’t change. It wouldn’t change for 13 other states (plus DC), either. Rhode Island would actually lose one elector, and the remaining 36 would gain electors.
California – which already has 55 electors – would gain 16 more for a total of 77 electors! The argument you’ve probably heard is that Wyoming has more than 3 times the voting power as California. Let’s break that down:
Wyoming has a population of 577,737. That means that each of its three electors represents 192,579 people. Sure, California has more electors, but it has much more people. California has 69 times the number of people, but only 18 times the number of electors. Each elector in California represents 724,828 people, making each Californian elector represent 3.7 times more citizens than in Wyoming. Why does this matter?
For the majority to win one elector in Wyoming, it needs to get 96,289 votes. In comparison, one district of California needs 362,414 votes to win. Wyoming is much more valuable for a presidential campaign because they only need to convince 96,000 voters instead of 362,000.
So what if we reapportioned representatives to match population? Well, it doesn’t fix everything; a Wyomingite vote would still have 2.9 times as much voting power as a Californian’s, But you can’t argue that the current system is better.
The full Google Sheet is here.